https://raaid.net/ Essays on data, AI, probability, investing, and decision-making. en-us https://raaid.net/essays/the-new-product-team.html https://raaid.net/essays/the-new-product-team.html 2026-04-12 Five roles emerging in the AI-native product org. What replaces the PM-engineer-analyst spine when AI handles most of the execution. https://raaid.net/essays/goodharts-law.html https://raaid.net/essays/goodharts-law.html 2026-03-25 When YouTube optimized for watch time, conspiracy content surged. An interactive look at how metrics stop working once you optimize for them. https://raaid.net/essays/blackjack-basic-strategy.html https://raaid.net/essays/blackjack-basic-strategy.html 2026-03-23 There is exactly one correct play for every blackjack hand. Play against the math, learn the strategy table, and see why gut feel costs you money. https://raaid.net/essays/prosecutors-fallacy.html https://raaid.net/essays/prosecutors-fallacy.html 2026-03-23 A 99.9% accurate DNA test does not mean a 99.9% chance of guilt. An interactive demonstration of the probability error that has wrongly convicted people. https://raaid.net/essays/regression-to-the-mean.html https://raaid.net/essays/regression-to-the-mean.html 2026-03-23 An 80% shooter goes 2 for 10. Is something wrong, or is it just noise? An interactive simulation of why extreme results rarely last. https://raaid.net/essays/simpsons-paradox.html https://raaid.net/essays/simpsons-paradox.html 2026-03-23 A surgeon wins in every category but loses overall. How aggregated data tells the opposite story — with interactive simulations to see it happen. https://raaid.net/essays/where-the-value-will-be.html https://raaid.net/essays/where-the-value-will-be.html 2025-12-28 If AI commoditizes execution, three things become expensive: the ability to judge, proof of origin, and willingness to guarantee. https://raaid.net/essays/an-analytics-renaissance-is-coming.html https://raaid.net/essays/an-analytics-renaissance-is-coming.html 2025-09-29 Most companies' data was built for humans reading dashboards. AI needs something different. The gap is where the real work is. https://raaid.net/essays/dont-outsource-your-thinking.html https://raaid.net/essays/dont-outsource-your-thinking.html 2025-09-02 On writing as a tool for clarity, the evolution of partnering with AI, and why the hardest part of thinking cannot be delegated. https://raaid.net/essays/p-hacking.html https://raaid.net/essays/p-hacking.html 2020-01-15 Test 20 random hypotheses and one will appear statistically significant by chance. An interactive look at how p-hacking produces false discoveries. https://raaid.net/essays/dice-influence-and-variance.html https://raaid.net/essays/dice-influence-and-variance.html 2019-12-29 Dice influencers claim to reduce sevens by less than half a percent. An interactive simulation of whether that tiny edge actually changes the math. https://raaid.net/essays/variable-dollar-cost-averaging-vdca.html https://raaid.net/essays/variable-dollar-cost-averaging-vdca.html 2018-10-27 A system for investing more when markets are cheap and less when they are expensive. How to build a variable dollar cost averaging strategy. https://raaid.net/essays/the-big-deal-about-risk-parity.html https://raaid.net/essays/the-big-deal-about-risk-parity.html 2018-03-06 Most portfolios allocate capital evenly but concentrate 95% of risk in stocks. Risk parity fixes that. A primer on the strategy and why it matters. https://raaid.net/essays/cognitive-investing-biases.html https://raaid.net/essays/cognitive-investing-biases.html 2017-05-04 How anchoring, confirmation bias, and other cognitive traps lead investors astray — and why even seasoned professionals fall for them. https://raaid.net/essays/socially-responsible-investing.html https://raaid.net/essays/socially-responsible-investing.html 2016-05-02 A $30 trillion generational wealth transfer is flowing toward socially responsible companies. The investment case for getting ahead of it. https://raaid.net/essays/roboadvisors.html https://raaid.net/essays/roboadvisors.html 2015-07-10 Why roboadvisors like Wealthfront and Betterment are excellent investment vehicles — a point-by-point response to the critics. https://raaid.net/essays/wealthfront-vs-schwab.html https://raaid.net/essays/wealthfront-vs-schwab.html 2015-05-03 Breaking down the Wealthfront vs. Schwab Intelligent Portfolios debate. Even in the best case for Schwab, their cash drag and fees fall short. https://raaid.net/essays/tried-and-true-investing-advice.html https://raaid.net/essays/tried-and-true-investing-advice.html 2012-08-22 Passive index investing works. The advice, the rationale, the behavioral traps that prevent people from following it, and how to stick with it. https://raaid.net/essays/birthday-problem.html https://raaid.net/essays/birthday-problem.html 2010-12-28 With just 23 people, there is a 50-50 chance two share a birthday. An interactive simulation of why our intuition about probability fails us. https://raaid.net/essays/finding-pi-with-randomness.html https://raaid.net/essays/finding-pi-with-randomness.html 2009-09-20 You can calculate pi by throwing darts randomly at a square. An interactive Monte Carlo simulation that reveals geometry hidden in randomness. https://raaid.net/essays/monty-hall-problem.html https://raaid.net/essays/monty-hall-problem.html 2008-01-05 Switching wins two-thirds of the time. Play the Monty Hall problem yourself, run thousands of simulations, and see why the math defies intuition. https://raaid.net/essays/power-to-the-people.html https://raaid.net/essays/power-to-the-people.html 2007-05-27 How games like reCAPTCHA harness millions of humans to solve problems computers cannot — and teach machines in the process. https://raaid.net/essays/ethics-of-fantasy-sports.html https://raaid.net/essays/ethics-of-fantasy-sports.html 2007-04-05 What actually counts as cheating in fantasy sports? A framework for fair play — from hoarding scarcity to exploiting scoring quirks. https://raaid.net/essays/schelling-segregation.html https://raaid.net/essays/schelling-segregation.html 2006-10-02 Even mild preferences for similar neighbors produce extreme segregation. An interactive simulation of Schelling's 1971 model on collective behavior.